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The "Kahuna" Betting Big on Hugo

Nobody has been to more XTERRA Championship events than the managing director of the XTERRA World Tour - "Kahuna Dave" Nicholas.  Having been to every World Championship race in Maui since creating the sport back in 1996, and having been onsite to see this years races unfold all over the world - the Kahuna is more than qualified to speculate on who might win it all this year.  That doesn't mean he'll get it right, in fact, he's hardly ever right (just 3-for-18 in picking winners over the last eight years).  So, with a grain of salt, but some tasty insight nonetheless, here are the Kahuna's 2011 Maui prognostications:

It seems the pro triathlon world is as excited as the age groupers to head into an all new Maui experience at Kapalua. The field is unbelievably strong and deep.

With 2010 World Champion Shonny Vanlandingham relegated to spectator after her ACL operation, it appears to boil down to Melanie McQuaid, Julie Dibens, Lesley Paterson, Renata Bucher and Marion “Bubu” Lorblanchet (pictured).    I don’t mean to diss the likes of Carina Wasle, Suzie Snyder, Emma Garrard, or Danelle Kabush as all of them have won races and could easily beat any of my top five picks. The wildcards have to be Czech pro Helena Erbenova who has two podiums in her first season in Europe and Aussie Erin Densham, an Olympic triathlete, as well as American Kelley Cullen who has been top four every XTERRA championship race she entered this year.

This could be the year of Bubu.  She has been unstoppable in Europe with a third-place in France due to some bike problems as the only blemish to a perfect four-win season.  Melanie was super strong last month in Utah and if Bubu is to win she has to go through the 3-time World Champ McQuaid to get it.  Julie Dibens is simply a superb athlete and can win anytime anyplace, but we’ll have to see if she can run on that toe that took her out of a brilliant race in Kona. Regardless, how can you deny anyone who won three world champ trophies in a row and came second in her only other appearance?  Lesley Paterson had her first XTERRA championship win this year in Santa Cruz and may be better suited to Kapalua than Makena.  If she gets into T2 within three minutes of the leader she truly has the ability to make up that much time on the run.  Renata has not had one of her best years, but took some time off in Europe and is reported happy and rested and ready to come claim her World Crown.

When it comes to the men we must look to the “Caveman” Conrad Stoltz.  With four XTERRA World Championship titles and more wins than any other XTERRA athlete in history one can never dismiss him as the favorite, but what a field of stellar athletes are coming to try and take him down.  European champ Olivier Marceau is always powerful on Maui despite never grabbing the top spot, Eneko Llanos has three XTERRA world titles and has proven he can race Kona and come to Maui and win. The “Professor” Nico Lebrun beat everyone up in Utah and chased Marceau in Switzerland for his last two finishes.  Nico is always at his best in September and October.  Austrian Michi Weiss returns after a great 70.3 and Ironman season, Victor Morales, who won France, is coming along with Marcel Zamora - a 5-time IM France champion.  Now throw in the fabulous Dan Hugo who is so due for the big win, Josiah Middaugh who has only bad luck holding him back from a Maui win, German Ronny Dietz who has Euro victories and chased Marceau down to the last few miles in Switzerland for the season crown, Tim DeBoom who got his XTERRA feet wet in Utah, Branden Rakita who was only 40+ seconds back of some newcomer named Lance in Utah and you have a field with anyone of 10 guys who could win. 

Oh dear, did I say Lance?  We were thrilled to have this generation’s best endurance athlete race with us in Utah.  And “The Man” did not disappoint.  Will he be back to face this horde of performers? All signs say yes he will. This field is arguably tougher than any he faced in The Tour and he will only have 2.5 hours to defeat them rather than 28 days.  To augment all of these names we must include 2008 Beijing Olympic Gold Medalist from Germany, Jan Frodeno.  No stranger to a mountain bike and a mate of Conrad and Hugo, Jan is a threat.

In the end it always boils down to who has “IT” on the day.  There will not be the flat tire or bike carnage on this course as in Makena. The trails are much more forgiving and mechanicals will not play so important a factor.  For the women I have to go with the threesome, in no particular order, of Dibens, Lorblanchet and McQuaid.  My pick for the upset is Lesley Paterson.

The men’s field is more difficult because we don’t know what to expect from Lance and Frodeno. Stoltz, Lebrun, and Llanos have a combined eight world championships.   Marceau, Weiss and Middaugh all have experience on Maui that should help – but we can’t forget there is no experience for this new course.

Hugo (pictured) is strong, Dietz can win on any given day and so can Morales; and those two supermen of Armstrong and Frodeno make it darn near impossible.

Ultimately, I see Dan Hugo as finally breaking through and winning the Big One, and Lorblanchet doing the same for the women.